Scotland's chances of advancing from third place in the 2026 World Cup
Scotland face a difficult task of advancing from Group C, where they face Brazil and Morocco. Their promotion depends on the match against Brazil and the results of matches in other groups.
In the advanced 2026 World Cup, where as many as 32 out of 48 teams will advance to the knockout phase, it is harder to lose than to advance. Scotland, however, find themselves in one of the tournament's toughest groups - alongside Morocco and Brazil - and may have to rely on being one of the best third-placed teams to advance. Scotland can win against Brazil on Wednesday (23:00 BST) to finish in the top two of Group C and advance directly, while a draw would almost ensure they progress. However, it won't be an easy task against the five-time world champions in Miami. BBC Sport looks at the Scots' situation and assesses how likely they are to advance if they finish in third place.
Scotland are in a comfortable position heading into their final group games. The eight best third-placed teams will avoid elimination - and Steve Clarke's side are currently second in this mini-league. Teams outside the top eight are the Czech Republic, Ecuador, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Senegal. Scotland have three points from two games and a zero goal difference - the same as Sweden, who lead the table in third place. The danger for Scotland is that they could suffer a heavy defeat against Brazil, which would mean their goal difference deteriorates.
According to Opta, a team finishing with a zero goal record has a 95% chance of advancing to the knockout stages. Losing against Brazil by one goal gives an 84% chance with a balance of -1. Losing by a greater margin worsens these numbers significantly - 63% for -2, 42% for -3, 27% for -4 and 19% for -5.
The frustration for Scotland is that, playing their final group match on Wednesday, they will have to wait a long time to learn their fate. If they lose to Brazil, they may not know their position until around 05:00 BST on Sunday, when Group J ends. This puts Scotland at a disadvantage as teams playing later in the week will have more information about what result is needed to progress.
If Scotland lose and finish with three points, they will have to rely on several results in other groups. In Group A, if Mexico beats the Czech Republic and South Korea beats South Africa, that would leave the third-placed team with one point. The best scenario would be a big victory for South Africa, which would leave South Korea in third place with three points and a poor goal difference. Victories for South Africa and the Czech Republic would mean bad news for Scotland, leaving the third-placed team with four points.
One of the few games that will take place before Scotland's clash with Brazil and has an impact on where Scotland might finish is the match in Group B. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar will face three hours before Scotland, with a draw leaving both teams with two points. In Group D, Australia and Paraguay are in second and third place respectively and will meet in their last match. The loser will finish the group with three points, while a draw will leave both teams with four.
Moving into Group E, Ecuador and Curacao have one point each and play Germany and Ivory Coast respectively. The lack of wins means that a third-placed team cannot top Scotland's three-point tally. In Group F, Scotland will be counting on Japan to beat Sweden convincingly. A point for Sweden, however, will leave third place with at least four points.
This is a key match in Group G from Scotland's point of viewEgypt vs. Iran. An Egyptian victory will ensure that the third-placed team will be within three points. It's the same situation in Group H, where Scotland fans will be rooting for Spain to face Uruguay so that the third-placed team can only finish with two points, while in Group I, a draw between Senegal and Iraq means the third-placed team will only have one point.
In Group J, Austria and Algeria - in second and third place respectively with three points - will meet in their final group match, so Scotland would not want this to end in a draw.
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