The US team has a chance to win its group at the 2026 World Cup after the match against Australia if it defeats them next Friday and receives help from Paraguay, which will face Turkey on the same day. Currently, the Americans lead Group D thanks to a better goal difference over the Australians, who defeated Turkey 2-0 in their last match in Vancouver.
A U.S. win over Australia, followed by a Turkish no-win over Paraguay, would have given Mauricio Pochettino's team top spot in the group after just two of three group stage matches. All this thanks to the new tiebreak rules introduced by FIFA, where the first criterion is the result of the direct clash, and not the goal balance as before.
However, if Türkiye does not lose to Paraguay, the situation in the group will remain open. Australia also has the opportunity to secure top spot if it beats the US and Türkiye does not lose to Paraguay.
However, the changed tiebreak rules add spice to Friday's match. Thanks to them, the USA's defeat against Australia does not ruin their chances of advancing, but it significantly complicates them. In the event of a draw at the end of the group, the results of the direct clashes and the goal balance from these matches will be decisive.
Winning Group D is additionally important because it gives us a favorable position in the knockout phase. The winner will face the third team from another group in the round of 32, and then potentially the best team from the group, Belgium, giving them a chance to stay on the US west coast in the following rounds.
The USA vs. Australia match will take place on Friday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time (12:00 p.m. Pacific time) at Lumen Field in Seattle. The Americans currently have a 63% chance of winning the group, and their victory over Australia will increase that chance to 84%, provided Paraguay does not lose to Turkey.
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